Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
