Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
